Archive for August, 2009

  • AUGUST 1, 2009

Why Israel Is Nervous

Tension is escalating between the U.S and Israel. The problem: The administration views the Israeli-Palestinian issue as the root of all problems, while Israel is focused on Iran’s nuclear threat, says Elliott Abrams.

By ELLIOTT ABRAMS Wall Street Journal

The tension in U.S.-Israel relations was manifest this past week as an extraordinary troupe of Obama administration officials visited Jerusalem. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, National Security Advisor James Jones, special Middle East envoy George Mitchell and new White House adviser Dennis Ross all showed up in Israel’s capital in an effort to…well, to do something. It was not quite clear what.

Since President Obama came to office on Jan. 20 and then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 31, the main motif in relations between the two governments has been friction. While nearly 80% of American Jews voted for Mr. Obama, that friction has been visible enough to propel him to meet with American Jewish leaders recently to reassure them about his policies. But last month, despite those reassurances, both the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and the Anti-Defamation League issued statements critical of the president’s handling of Israel. Given the warm relations during the Bush years and candidate Obama’s repeated statements of commitment to the very best relations with Israel, why have we fallen into this rut?

U.S.-Israel relations are often depicted as an extended honeymoon, but that’s a false image. Harry Truman, who was a Bible-believing Christian Zionist, defied the secretary of state he so admired, George C. Marshall, and won a place in Israel’s history by recognizing the new state 11 minutes after it declared its independence in 1948. Relations weren’t particularly warm under Eisenhower—who, after all, demanded that Israel, along with Britain and France, leave Suez in 1956. The real alliance began in 1967, after Israel’s smashing victory in the Six Day War, and it was American arms and Nixon’s warnings to the Soviet Union to stay out that allowed Israel to survive and prevail in the 1973 war. Israelis are no fans of President Carter and, as his more recent writings have revealed, his own view of Israel is very hostile. During the George H.W. Bush and Clinton years, there were moments of close cooperation, but also of great friction—as when Bush suspended loan guarantees to Israel, or when the Clinton administration butted heads with Mr. Netanyahu time after time during peace negotiations. Even during the George W. Bush years, when Israel’s struggle against the terrorist “intifada” and the U.S. “global war on terror” led to unprecedented closeness and cooperation, there was occasional friction over American pressure for what Israelis viewed as endless concessions to the Palestinians to enable the signing of a peace agreement before the president’s term ended. This “special relationship” has been marked by intense and frequent contact and often by extremely close (and often secret) collaboration, but not by the absence of discord.

Yet no other administration, even among those experiencing considerable dissonance with Israel, started off with as many difficulties as Obama’s. There are two explanations for this problem, and the simpler one is personal politics. Mr. Netanyahu no doubt remembers very well the last Democratic administration’s glee at his downfall in 1999, something Dennis Ross admits clearly in his book “The Missing Peace.” The prime minister must wonder if the current bilateral friction is an effort to persuade Israelis that he is not the right man for the job, or at least to persuade them that his policies must be rejected. When Israeli liberals plead for Obama to “talk to Israel,” they are hoping that Obama will help them revive the Israeli Left, recently vanquished in national elections. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Mr. Obama and his team wish former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had won the top job and view Mr. Netanyahu and his Likud Party with some suspicion. The result, of course, is to make personal relations among policy makers more difficult, and to make trust and confidence between the two governments harder as well.

But the Obama administration has managed to win the mistrust of most Israelis, not just conservative politicians. Despite his great popularity in many parts of the world, in Israel Obama is now seen as no ally. A June poll found that just 6% of Israelis called him “pro-Israel,” when 88% had seen President George W. Bush that way. So the troubles between the U.S. and Israel are not fundamentally found in the personal relations among policy makers.

The deeper problem—and the more complex explanation of bilateral tensions—is that the Obama administration, while claiming to separate itself from the “ideologues” of the Bush administration in favor of a more balanced and realistic Middle East policy, is in fact following a highly ideological policy path. Its ability to cope with, indeed even to see clearly, the realities of life in Israel and the West Bank and the challenge of Iran to the region is compromised by the prism through which it analyzes events.

The administration view begins with a critique of Bush foreign policy—as much too reliant on military pressure and isolated in the world. The antidote is a policy of outreach and engagement, especially with places like Syria, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran. Engagement with the Muslim world is a special goal, which leads not only to the president’s speech in Cairo on June 4 but also to a distancing from Israel so as to appear more “even-handed” to Arab states. Seen from Jerusalem, all this looks like a flashing red light: trouble ahead.

Iran is the major security issue facing Israel, which sees itself confronting an extremist regime seeking nuclear weapons and stating openly that Israel should be wiped off the map. Israel believes the military option has to be on the table and credible if diplomacy and sanctions are to have any chance, and many Israelis believe a military strike on Iran may in the end be unavoidable. The Obama administration, on the other hand, talks of outstretched hands; on July 15, even after Iran’s election, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said “we understand the importance of offering to engage Iran….direct talks provide the best vehicle….We remain ready to engage with Iran.”

To the Israelis this seems unrealistic, even naïve, while to U.S. officials an Israeli attack on Iran is a nightmare that would upset Obama’s outreach to the Muslim world. The remarkable events in Iran have slowed down U.S. engagement, but not the Iranian nuclear program. If the current dissent in Iran leads to regime change, or if new United Nations sanctions force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program, this source of U.S.-Israel tension will disappear. But it is more likely that Iran will forge ahead toward building a weapon, and U.S.-Israel tension will grow as Israel watches the clock tick and sees its options narrowed to two: live with an Iranian bomb, or strike Iran soon to delay its program long enough for real political change to come to that country.

Israel believes the only thing worse than bombing Iran is Iran’s having the Bomb, but the evidence suggests this is not the Obama view.

If Iran is the most dangerous source of U.S.-Israel tension, the one most often discussed is settlements: The Obama administration has sought a total “freeze” on “Israeli settlement growth.” The Israelis years ago agreed there would be no new settlements and no physical expansion of settlements, just building “up and in” inside already existing communities. Additional construction in settlements does not harm Palestinians, who in fact get most of the construction jobs. The West Bank economy is growing fast and the Israelis are removing security roadblocks so Palestinians can get around the West Bank better.

A recent International Monetary Fund report stated that “macroeconomic conditions in the West Bank have improved” largely because “Israeli restrictions on internal trade and the passage of people have been relaxed significantly.” What’s more, says the IMF, “continuation of the relaxation of restrictions could result in real GDP growth of 7% for 2009 as a whole.” That’s a gross domestic product growth rate Americans would leap at, so what’s this dispute about?

It is, once again, about the subordination of reality to pre-existing theories. In this case, the theory is that every problem in the Middle East is related to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The administration takes the view that “merely” improving life for Palestinians and doing the hard work needed to prepare them for eventual independence isn’t enough. Nor is it daunted by the minor detail that half of the eventual Palestine is controlled by the terrorist group Hamas.

Instead, in keeping with its “yes we can” approach and its boundless ambitions, it has decided to go not only for a final peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, but also for comprehensive peace in the region. Mr. Mitchell explained that this “includes Israel and Palestine, Israel and Syria, Israel and Lebanon and normal relations with all countries in the region. That is President Obama’s personal objective vision and that is what he is asking to achieve. In order to achieve that we have asked all involved to take steps.” The administration (pocketing the economic progress Israel is fostering in the West Bank) decided that Israel’s “step” would be to impose a complete settlement freeze, which would be proffered to the Arabs to elicit “steps” from them.

But Israelis notice that already the Saudis have refused to take any “steps” toward Israel, and other Arab states are apparently offering weak tea: a quiet meeting here, overflight rights there, but nothing approaching normal relations. They also notice that Mr. Mitchell was in Syria last week, smiling warmly at its repressive ruler Bashar Assad and explaining that the administration would start waiving the sanctions on Syria to allow export of “products related to information technology and telecommunication equipment and parts and components related to the safety of civil aviation” and will “process all eligible applications for export licenses as quickly as possible.” While sanctions on certain Syrian individuals were renewed last week, the message to the regime is that better days lie ahead. Of this approach the Syrian dissident Ammar Abdulhamid told the Wall Street Journal, “The regime feels very confident politically now. Damascus feels like it’s getting a lot without giving up anything.” Indeed, no “steps” from Syria appear to be on the horizon, except Mr. Assad’s willingness to come to the negotiating table where he will demand the Golan Heights back but refuse to make the break with Iran and Hezbollah that must be the basis for any serious peace negotiation.

None of this appears to have diminished the administration’s zeal, for bilateral relations with everyone take a back seat once the goal of comprehensive peace is put on the table. The only important thing about a nation’s policies becomes whether it appears to play ball with the big peace effort. The Syrian dictatorship is viciously repressive, houses terrorist groups and happily assists jihadis through Damascus International Airport on their way to Iraq to fight U.S. and Coalition forces, but any concerns we might have are counterbalanced by the desire to get Mr. Assad to buy in to new negotiations with Israel. (Is the new “information technology” we’ll be offering Mr. Assad likely to help dissidents there, or to help him suppress them?)

Future stability in Egypt is uncertain because President Hosni Mubarak is nearing 80, reportedly not in good health, and continues to crush all moderate opposition forces, but this is all ignored as we enlist Mr. Mubarak’s cooperation in the comprehensive peace scheme. As we saw in the latter part of the Clinton and Bush administrations, once you commit to a major effort at an international peace conference or a comprehensive Middle East peace, those goals overwhelm all others.

Israelis have learned the hard way that reality cannot be ignored and that ideology offers no protection from danger. Four wars and a constant battle against terrorism sobered them up, and made them far less susceptible than most audiences to the Obama speeches that charmed Americans, Europeans, and many Muslim nations. A policy based in realism would help the Palestinians prepare for an eventual state while we turn our energies toward the real challenge confronting the entire region: what is to be done about Iran as it faces its first internal crisis since the regime came to power in 1979.

Mrs. Clinton recently decried “rigid ideologies and old formulas,” but the tension with Israel shows the administration is—up to now—following the old script that attributes every problem in the region to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while all who live there can see that developments in Iran are in fact the linchpin of the region’s future. The Obama administration’s “old formulas” have produced the current tensions with Israel. They will diminish only if the administration adopts a more realistic view of what progress is possible, and what dangers lurk, in the Middle East.

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was the deputy national security adviser overseeing Near East and North African affairs under President George W. Bush from 2005 to January 2009.

John McCain says Barack Obama flunks bipartisanship

By MIKE ALLEN & CAROL E. LEE | 8/2/09 1:43 PM EDT

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) says in a wide-ranging interview aired Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that President Barack Obama needs to “be more specific” about his prescription for health reform.

“I think they may have over-learned the lesson of the Clinton proposal in ’93, where there were totally specific proposals.,” McCain said. “Now there’s not enough. “At this point, I think the administration and the president has to be more specific.”

In an interview taped Friday on Capitol Hill, McCain said his general-election opponent is “not changing the climate in Washington” as promised.

McCain said he has “not seen” a “public option,” or government plan, he could support.

“The co-ops remind us all of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” he told anchor John King. “And so I have not seen a public option that, in my view, meets the test of what would really not eventually lead to a government take over.”

King asked McCain if Obama has “failed the test he laid out at [an inaugural] dinner, to be truly bipartisan.”

“I’m afraid they have,” McCain replied. “And, look, they’ve got the votes. We understand that. They had the votes in the stimulus package, in the budget, in the omnibus, in the SCHIP [children’s health insurance], all this legislation. And they have picked off, sometimes, two or three Republicans.

“But that’s not changing the climate in Washington. What that is, is exercising a significant majority. And so I respect their successes, but please don’t call it changing the climate in Washington.”

Sen. John McCain welcomed the delay in Senate action on a health care bill because it allows more time for debate, but he warned that “there are still these irreconcilable differences,” pointing to the cost and the public option.

“I have not seen a public option that in my view meets the test” that it wouldn’t lead to a government takeover of health care, he added.

McCain said that so far Republicans have been shut out of the process.

“Unfortunately there was no input by Republicans in writing the bill in the HELP Committee,” he said. “It was all a Democratic proposal. That’s not the way you want to begin if you’re really interested in a true bipartisan result. Maybe we can go back and all of us – and I’d be glad to play a role.”

He said those efforts have to involve “a true sit-down. Not ‘here’s the plan, how can we fix it so it satisfies enough of you and call it bipartisan.'”

In a wide-ranging interview, McCain criticized Obama’s lack of specifics on what he wants in a health care bill, saying, “he’s talked about the things that are wrong and need to be fixed,” but hasn’t laid out how he would fix them.

And he offered his take on both the Democratic and Republican parties.

He said the $787 billion stimulus package has been a “handicap” for Democrats as they try to accomplish health care reform.

“The passing of the stimulus package and the huge deficit associated with that, I think harmed their ability to reform health care,” McCain said.

Yet, while raising concerns about the deficit, he also said “it’s very clear that the stimulus has had some affect.”

The Republican senator also said his own party has lost a lot of its base because of its record on government spending, and that the GOP needs to make a strong effort to reach out to Hispanic voters and recruit Hispanics to run for office, or the party will be left behind.

“We have a lot of work to do there,” said McCain, who also expressed a willingness to work with Obama on immigration reform. “We have a very big deep hole that we’ve got to come out of.”

On Iran’s nuclear ambitions, McCain warned that the clock is ticking.

“We want to be very careful about our relationship with the Iranians,” he said. “Time is not on our side.” He noted that the Israelis are becoming “impatient,” and said, “the whole Middle East could be in a very serious crisis.”

McCain also weighed in on decision of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, his 2008 running mate, to resign in the middle of her term, saying “she will continue to be a force.”

“I think she will continue to play a major role in the future of the Republican Party,” McCain said. “And I have to respect the decision she made.”

But, McCain stopped short of saying he’d vote for her in a 2012 presidential race over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.

“I don’t know if all of those are going to run,” he said.

McCain also said that “it appears” the U.S. will need to send more troops to Afghanistan.

KING: “We see that General [Stanley] McChrystal, the new commanding general in Afghanistan, is a little worried about corruption, about the Taliban. And there are indications that he will ask the president of the United States for more troops. Do you believe we need more troops in Afghanistan?”

McCAIN: “I also await General McChrystal’s opinion and our visit. But from everything I’ve seen, it looks like the Afghan Army has to be increased, and significantly. And that’s going to be a huge cost. And it appears as if we need more troops. But I’d continue to be guided — to a large degree — by the commanders on the ground and their view — not strictly dictated, but they’re the ones that really have the responsibility to a great extent. And General [David] Petraeus was right on Iraq and I think Gen. McCrystal will be correct on Afghanistan.”

About me:

Posted: August 3, 2009 in Uncategorized

We live in a world of desperate and deadly times. Third world countries are slowly getting poorer, ethnic and political hatred in the third world are slowing consuming regions causeing genocides and abuses of power by evil dictators, and IslamoFascists are gathering to destroy every nation unless they follow their false fundamentalist based policies. In a period of chaos, it is known that confusions tend to occur. People wonder to themselves why such horrible things happen. They get so swallowed up by this question that they tend to lose faith in God and country. After this, there are to two different pathways they take to make sense of it all: the path of nihilism, or the path of a following another false ideology. The individuals who take the latter invent twisted ideologies and violently point the blame on others in order to find an answer. But there is one sick ideology that abandons morals and liberty all together. To this day, a dangerous force of horrible and immense power is sweeping the mind of U.S. Citizens and is growing by the day. Based on the destruction of individualism, and the growth of collectivism and groupthink, they wish to create a global centralized government, after the annihilation of the current, where a dictator provides for the people, unaware that people are able to provide for themselves. They claim that they are true revolutionaries and that are on a global mission to destroy the so-called “oppressers.” Which false revolutionaries i’m talking about? They are the anti-capitalist, leftest, anarchist,and communist revolutionaries. With stoned college students and the media among their army they are slowly growing in number, preaching to people that the U.S. is an evil nation bent on impirealism and that the U.S. government wants to destroy all minorities, and at the same time these leftist abominations use cencership and intimidation to silence all opposition.

My purpose in this debacle is to confront my opposite.

Why I believe the revolution is bullshit:

Well, where shall I start. I must confess, first, that I cannot answer truthfully since the factors are advanced beyond earthy comprehension and is along the lines of casual determinism, but I will try to respond with as much integrity. I suppose the real reason for my rejection of that anti-establishment, delusioned assembly and my formation of an array of like-minded individuals is the simple theory that all forces in the universe have an equal and opposite force. I sort of got bromidic with all these equally intellectual individuals abandoning common sense and moral integrity for such a strong-willed, yet, false ideology. But I cannot say the left is dead. Even an organism with the mental sophistication of an ant, can see that the far left is alive and well here and abroad. This ideology is very infectious and is very simple to acquire due to its tempting gaze. But the ironic thing is I used to be one of these willfully serving subjects of this controlling ideal, an ideal that masks itself with the promise of complete liberation, but its true intention is domination. I too believed that with enough knowledge and wisdom of myself and of others I can control my destiny and change the world. That nothing in this world can stop me from doing anything I wanted. Though along that path I encountered something that changed me, that knowledge and wisdom is not enough: man and the universe is imperfect, and that is why it is beautiful. There are some things in this world man cannot control. One of those things that man cannot control is himself, and that man is not truely free from himself and others until death. This encounter came after a striking meeting with the horrors of reality, and I saw the flaw of this ideology. It exploits the confusion of the mind and absorbs you and makes you think for you, and at the same time you completely forget that you can think for yourself.I have subjugated myself in a middle ground that I have lost hope in many HUMAN ideologies and I do the best I can to do what is right, whenever I get the chance. But do not get me wrong I have not given up hope in humanity, for they are capable in many great things. And, despite what some may believe, I never wanted to control or subjugate your to the same beliefs as mine for we both believe (or so I thought) that man is not meant to control others, only to wonder what our place is in this world and when the time comes to protect the innocent of this world and too make sure my neighbor doesn’t loose his will.